The ASA's Statement on p-Values

美国统计协会吐槽p值

Posted by Wenlong Shen on April 23, 2017

Q: Why do so many colleges and grad schools teach p = 0.05?
A: Because that’s still what the scientific community and journal editors use.
Q: Why do so many people still use p = 0.05?
A: Because that’s what they were taught in college or grad school.

What is a p-Value?

Informally, a p-value is the probability under a specified statistical model that a statistical summary of the data (e.g., the sample mean difference between two compared groups) would be equal to or more extreme than its observed value.

Principles

  1. P-values can indicate how incompatible the data are with a specified statistical model.
  2. P-values do not measure the probability that the studied hypothesis is true, or the probability that the data were produced by random chance alone.
  3. Scientific conclusions and business or policy decisions should not be based only on whether a p-value passes a specific threshold.
  4. Proper inference requires full reporting and transparency
  5. A p-value, or statistical significance, does not measure the size of an effect or the importance of a result.
  6. By itself, a p-value does not provide a good measure of evidence regarding a model or hypothesis.